It might be a coincidence but one cannot help but notice that among the states going through various forms of crises less than a year into the current dispensation are states that with the highest number of votes in Nigerian elections.
Rivers State with 3,537,190 registered voters, has the fourth highest voting population in Nigeria; while Kaduna is third with 4,335,208 registered voters and Kano, second highest with 5,921,370 registered voters trailing only behind Lagos which has a voter strength of 7,060,195 persons.
As one can see, all these states have from May 29, 2023, been enmeshed in one form of political crises or the other.
Rivers has been in lingering turmoil over who controls the political structure in the state while Kaduna is still seething from a recent skirmish between the current and immediate past governor of the state, even as Kano has been conflagrating over the bid by the NNPP which won the governorship elections, to entrench itself, which has been heightened by the recent royal tussle for the emirship.
Though Lagos may appear calmer the undercurrent gives it away as smouldering.
While it is remains a matter of time to conclude if these are mere coincidences or have something to do with, given their voting strengths, strategic importance in the nation’s political equations, this reporter wants to believe that what is happening in the four states have something to do with the jostle for political mileage in 2027.
One would have thought that such schemes would have been considered too early given that the current administration is barely a year in office and has ample time before the next elections.
But there are historical precedences to show that no time is considered too early in Nigerian politics.
The case of Alhaji Shugaba Abdulrahman Darman, then majority leader of the Borno State House of Assembly and GNPP strong man, who woke up one day and saw himself being bundled and dumped in the neighbouring Chad Republic on the pretext that he has been found to be an illegal immigrant comes to mind.
This happened in January 1980, when the NPN led government of Shehu Shagari was barely four months in office and had over three and half years to prepare for the next elections in 1983!
Happenings in the current ‘swing states’ of Nigeria bear similarities with the typical ruling party’s desperation to maximize its chances as it intends to seek reelection.
The royal rumble in Kano cannot therefore be considered an isolated event given the acrimony between the APC which is in power at the center and the NNPP which controls the state.
Worse still, is the no love lost relationship between the APC national chairman Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and the NNPP leader, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.
The royal rumble bears all the trappings of political ventriloquism with the known characters acting as mere puppets for some puppeteers pulling the strings behind.
What makes the Kano episode interesting is that like the case of Shugaban Darman, the hands of central government has been spotted too early.
While the APC can pretend not to have a hand in what is happening in Rivers or Kaduna, it has inadvertently exposed its interest in what is happening in Kano.
When it started, the royal tussle remained a show for the state government up to the time that Emir Aminu Ado Bayero was deposed and Muhammad Sanusi II was enthroned.
It has been the tradition since the colonial era for deposed traditional rulers to stay banished from their domains to avoid conflicts that may arise through emotions that their physical presence may evoke.
Emir Ado Bayero was said to be at Ijebu Ode when he was removed and the expectation was that he will proceed from there proceed elsewhere outside Kano especially as the storm was raging over his deposition.
But a twist was added to the drama, when he gave indication that he was returning to Kano and he did return. This is unprecedented.
Not surprising, Abuja was fingered as the brain behind the twist.
Kano state deputy governor, Comrade Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo did not mince words when he accused the National Security Adviser, Malam Nuhu Ribadu of facilitating the return of the dethroned Emir and providing the aircraft that returned Ado-Bayero to the state,
though Ribadu denied doing so.
He also accused the APC national chairman, Ganduje of deploying ‘federal might to impose Aminu Ado Bayero on people of the state.’
The support and cooperation Ado Bayero received from the security agencies controlled by the federal government when he got to Kano, also lends credence to this.
Why the Kano debacle appears dicy is because no side would want to lose as conceding would have a telling effect on its chances in 2027.
By all means, the NNPP would want to retain Kano in 2027 for its own survival just as APC would want to take over the state to boost its chances in the next general elections.
It’s a royal rumble which interest extends beyond the emirate and which may not be calmed by who eventually holds the twin spear staff.
